Donald Trump's tax plan proposes a mix of tax cuts, incentives for specific industries, and significant tariff increases, aiming to boost economic growth while advancing his economic and trade policy priorities.
A major element of his plan is to make the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent. This includes retaining reduced individual and corporate tax rates, which otherwise will expire after 2025. Additionally, Trump suggests restoring full deductions for state and local taxes (SALT), potentially benefiting high-income earners in states with higher tax burdens. His plan also proposes exempting certain types of income, like tips, Social Security, and overtime pay, from income tax, which could reduce taxable income for many workers and provide modest economic stimulus.
For corporations, Trump aims to lower the corporate tax rate specifically for domestic manufacturing to 15%, positioning the U.S. as more competitive for industrial production. He has also proposed removing tax credits related to green energy, targeting the rollback of incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act.
Trade policies are integral to his 2024 plan as well. Trump’s proposal includes a universal 20% tariff on all imports, with an additional 60% tariff on imports from China, a move designed to protect U.S. industries but expected to raise consumer costs. Analysts predict that while this could increase revenue, it might also lead to economic contraction due to potential retaliation from trading partners and rising import prices for consumers.
Economists estimate that his plan could boost GDP modestly by up to 0.8% over the long run, but it may also increase the national debt by trillions over the next decade, depending on growth and revenue assumptions. This deficit increase stems in part from anticipated lower tax revenues and higher interest payments on new debt, leading to a projected rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio.